Gestión de riesgos de costes de posconstrucción en edificios residenciales en alquiler

P. Fernández-Valderrama; J. J. Moyano; M. R. Chaza

doi:10.3989/ic.63759

Authors

P. Fernández-Valderrama Universidad de Sevilla https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8964-5766
J. J. Moyano Universidad de Sevilla https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2186-6159
M. R. Chaza Universidad de Sevilla https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1791-8008

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3989/ic.63759

Keywords:

Risk management, risk assessment, post-construction cost, residential rental buildings, semi-structured interviews, Delphi method

Abstract

The post-construction cost of the buildings represents an essential part of its life cycle cost and therefore its control is fundamental to achieve the economic sustainability of a building. The present research proposes a model to identify, analyse and assess the risk of increases of post-construction cost in residential buildings for rental. To develop it, we turn to experts´ assessments and the experimentation of the model in different buildings. We use the semi-structured interview (a total of 83) as well as the Delphi method: in this last one, inquiry forms are replaced with interviews, so data quality are increased. The model proposes a scale to adjust the building risk level, which is between a minimum of 36 and a maximum of 109. The research results reveal that from the value of 75, the risk level is considered unacceptable.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

(1) García-Erviti, F., Armengot-Paradinas, J., Ramírez-Pacheco, G. (2015). El análisis del coste del ciclo de vida como herramienta para la evaluación económica de la edificación sostenible. Estado de la cuestión. Informes de la Construcción, 67(537): e056. https://doi.org/10.3989/ic.12.119

(2) ISO (2014). ISO 55000:2015 Asset management -- Overview, principles and terminology. International Organization for Standardization.

(3) ISO (2008). ISO 15686-5:2008(E) Buildings and constructed assets - Service-life planning - Part 5: Life-cycle costing. International Organization for Standardization.

(4) Baloi, D., Price, A.D.F. (2003). Modelling global risk factors affecting construction cost performance. International Journal of Project Management, 21: 261-269. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(02)00017-0

(5) PMI. (2017). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge: (PMBOK® Guide). Sixth ed., Newtown Square, PA: PMI, Project Management Institute.

(6) Fernández-Valderrama, P. (2015). Modelo para la gestión del riesgo asociado a los costes globales en fase de postconstrucción en edificios plurifamiliares destinados a arrendamiento (tesis doctoral). Universidad de Sevilla. Sevilla, España.

(7) Zhou, L., Vasconcelos, A., Nunes, M. (2008). Supporting decision making in risk management through an evidencebased information systems project risk checklist. Information management and computer security, 16(2), 166-186. https://doi.org/10.1108/09685220810879636

(8) Uher, T.E., Toakley, A. (1999). Risk management in the conceptual phase of a project. International Journal of Project Management, 17: 161-169. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(98)00024-6

(9) Han, S.H., Kim, D.Y., Kim, H. and Jang, W.S. (2008). A web-based integrated system for international project risk management. Automation in Construction, 17: 342-356. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2007.05.012

(10) Shang, H., Anumba, C.J., Bouchlaghem, D.M., Miles, J.C., Cen, M., Taylor, M. (2005). An intelligent risk assessment system for distributed construction teams. Engineering Construction and Architectural Management, 12: 391-409, https://doi.org/10.1108/09699980510608839

(11) Ministerio de Fomento (2013). Real Decreto 233/2013, de 5 de abril, por el que se regula el Plan Estatal de fomento del alquiler de viviendas, la rehabilitación edificatoria, y la regeneración y renovación urbanas, 2013-2016. Boletín Oficial del Estado, nº 10. España.

(12) Ministerio de Fomento (2018). Real Decreto 106/2018, de 9 de marzo, por el que se regula el Plan Estatal de Vivienda 2018-2021. Boletín Oficial del Estado, nº 61. España.

(13) Taroun, A. (2014). Towards a better modelling and assessment of construction risk: Insights from a literature review. International Journal of Project Management, 32: 101-115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.03.004

(14) Akintoye, A.S., MacLeod, M.J. (1997). Risk analysis and management in construction. International Journal of Project Management, 15(1): 31-38. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(96)00035-X

(15) De Camprieu, R., Desbiens, J., Feixue, Y. (2007). 'Cultural' differences in project risk perception: An empirical comparison of China and Canada. International Journal of Project Management, 25(7): 683-693. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.07.005

(16) Hwang, B.G., Zhao, X., Toh, L.P. (2014). Risk management in small construction projects in Singapore: Status, barriers and impact. International Journal of Project Management, 32(1): 116-124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.01.007

(17) Marcelino-Sádaba, S., Pérez-Ezcurdia, A., Lazcano, A.M.E., Villanueva, P. (2014). Project risk management methodology for small firms. International Journal of Project Management, 32(2): 327-340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2013.05.009

(18) Osipova, E., Eriksson, P.E. (2013). Balancing control and flexibility in joint risk management: Lessons learned from two construction projects. International Journal of Project Management, 3(3): 391-399. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.09.007

(19) Bjerga, T., Aven, T. (2015). Adaptive risk management using new risk perspectives-an example from the oil and gas industry. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 134: 75-82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2014.10.013

(20) Aven, T., Krohn, B.S. (2014). A new perspective on how to understand, assess and manage risk and the unforeseen. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 121: 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2013.07.005

(21) Kuo, Y.C., Lu, S.T. (2013). Using fuzzy multiple criteria decision making approach to enhance risk assessment for metropolitan construction projects. International Journal of Project Management, 31(4): 602-614. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.10.003

(22) Rostami, A., Oduoza, C. F. (2017). Key risks in construction projects in Italy: contractors' perspective. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, 24(3): 451-462. https://doi.org/10.1108/ECAM-09-2015-0142

(23) Likert, R. (1932). A technique for the measurement of attitudes. Archives of psychology, 22(140): 1-55.

(24) Lu, S., Yan, H. (2013). A comparative study of the measurements of perceived risk among contractors in China. International Journal of Project Management, 3: 307-312. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2012.06.001

(25) Dawson, I.G., Johnson, J.E., Luke, M.A. (2017). One too many? Understanding the influence of risk factor quantity on perceptions of risk. Risk analysis, 37(6): 1157-1169. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12690 PMid:27653800

(26) Kangari, R., Riggs, L. S. (1989). Construction risk assessment by linguistics. Engineering Management, IEEE Transactions on, 36 (2): 126-131. https://doi.org/10.1109/17.18829

(27) ISO (2010). ISO 31010: 2009 Risk Management-Risk Assessment Techniques. CENELEC.

(28) Cervone, H.F. (2006). Project risk management. OCLC Systems and Services, 22: 256-262. https://doi.org/10.1108/10650750610706970

(29) Kendrick, T. (2003). Identifying and Managing Project Risk, New York: American Management Association.

(30) Nassim, N.T. (2007). The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable. New York: Random House.

(31) Apostolakis, G.E. (2004). How useful is quantitative risk assessment? Risk Analysis, 24: 515-520. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00455.x PMid:15209926