Contingency planning for rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions

Abstract

The current and predicted levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are, according to the best international scientific estimates, leading the world towards climate change that will have serious consequences for all countries. The problem is aggravated by the tendency of people and institutions not to take action until catastrophic consequences emerge. The history of crises in other sectors show us that reactions are likely to focus on ad-hoc reactions or using plans that are readily available, with negative results. However, the alternative of developing public plans for drastic and rapid reductions is not likely to gain support because of their radical nature. The author therefore proposes that large organizations with direct or indirect control over substantial GHG emissions should prepare private contingency plans for very rapid reductions in emissions, so that more rational and less destructive plans will be available when the appropriate moment comes for last-minute action. Examples of the type of specific plans that may be appropriate are suggested.